Whoever becomes USA president, world will become more fragmented

Here are three things that are coming or already came to us

• There is rarely cheap products(made in China) are sold in the USA and it makes increasing inflations over the globe. Even though the US and the Euro defend against cheap Chinese products using higher tariffs, there is still a channel to trade the cheapest products from China.
• Manufacturing supply chains are fragmented. Owning those supply chains is critical for every country to be able to survive and rebuild new types of economic barriers for their national advantage. This means every country needs to run toward "Every man for himself"
• Geo-political assets are critical for every country such as AI, Semiconductor, Quantum computing, EV energy transition and autonomous robotics, etc. Every country will focus on these sectors to build their own supply chains for their national advantage.

Here are three things that need to be monitored from macroeconomics perspective

• Higher for longer will be steady on Fed interest rate. They might decline before the US election. The key moment of stock market is coming after the US election. After the election, The US treasury bond yield might incline. This will incline the "discount rate" of Nasdaq Big Tech 7 Company stocks. This means stock prices of those big tech 7 might decline. Be cautious about investing in big tech 7 stocks. They might become overpriced any time soon if they can't prove the profitability of their AI business.
• A strong Dollar will be steady and sustained for a longer period. They might execute Plaza Accord again like in 1985 but We will see how it goes. Currently, I focus on monitoring the Japanese currency rate compared to the US Dollar. Still, the weak Japanese Yen is pushing Japanese domestic investors to invest oversea, especially the US treasury bond. But if Japanese inflation is inclined more than expected, BOJ will increase interest rates to defend against inflation. This will push Japanese investors to sell overseas assets such as US bonds and bring the dollar into the Japanese domestic market, which is "Liquidation of Yen Carry Trade" 
• The steadiness of a strong Dollar isn't a good sign for every country except the USA even though the USA has a trade deficit due to the strong dollar. The US gov will release US treasury bonds more than a 1-2 year-long maturity US T-bill any time soon. During this moment, the US fed might slightly decline interest rates to convert their majority of US treasury into US T-bonds. Currently, The majority of the US Treasury is 1-2 year long maturity of US T-bill which means the US gov must roll over bond contracts every 1-2 years. The US gov might want to cover those short-term bills with long-term bonds. If then, the Market will request more yield premium on the US treasury bond. This will decline the price of the US Treasury bond. Be cautious to invest in US Treasury bonds.